Had I been on it, I might have been able to see this tone shift coming. Like it was back in 2010, when The Social Network was all but certain to cruise to a Best Picture win until The King's Speech swept it to steal it all, American Hustle seems to be coming for 12 Years a Slave. Entertainment reporters seem to be swayed by what they are hearing: Academy voters love David O. Russell's film.
Most analysts are looking to tonight's Producers Guild Awards to give them a sense of how strong this shift is, but the model I use to predict the Academy Awards doesn't seem to think that matters. If 12 Years a Slave wins tonight, and Alfonso Cuarón wins the Directors Guild Award as many suspect he will, then it turns out that American Hustle is still the favorite.
What is difficult to reconcile, however, is that when I don't assume the winners of those awards, the model thinks 12 Years a Slave is a sure thing. So somewhere hidden in the data is a forecast that things are not going to turn out like we think they will at the guild awards. I suspect that things will come into focus at the Directors Guild Award on Friday. If Steve McQueen doesn't go home with an award, 12 Years a Slave is likely a sinking ship.
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