In 2012,
Argo ran away with the Best Picture race, but it's director Ben Affleck didn't even receive a nomination. It was perhaps the biggest oversight in Oscar history due to both the prestige of the award and the near certainty that Affleck would have won if he were nominated. With that in mind, I wanted to try predicting the nominees for Best Director in advance of the 15th.
There are 15 directors who could be considered "in the running" for Best Director. That short list looks like this:
Best Director "Shortlist"
| Film |
Director |
| American Sniper |
Clint Eastwood |
| Birdman |
Alejandro González Iñárritu |
| Boyhood |
Richard Linklater |
| Foxcatcher |
Bennett Miller |
| Gone Girl |
David Fincher |
| Guardians of the Galaxy |
James Gunn |
| Into the Woods |
Rob Marshall |
| Nightcrawler |
Dan Gilroy |
| Selma |
Ava DuVernay |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
Wes Anderson |
| The Imitation Game |
Morten Tyldum |
| The Theory of Everything |
James Marsh |
| Unbroken |
Angelina Jolie |
| Whiplash |
Damien Chazelle |
| Wild |
Jean-Marc Vallée |
Out of these 15, only 6 have been nominated elsewhere: Iñárritu, Linklater, Fincher, DuVernay, Anderson, and Jolie. But as I hinted at the top, the Academy often overlooks the consensus. Feeding what nominations there have been so far into a model to predict the Academy's nods gives the following:
Odds of an Academy Award Nomination for Best Director
| Film |
Odds |
| Boyhood |
99.90% |
| Gone Girl |
76.30% |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
63.95% |
| The Imitation Game |
58.92% |
| Selma |
48.23% |
| Birdman |
47.75% |
| Foxcatcher |
31.12% |
| Nightcrawler |
17.19% |
| Whiplash |
17.19% |
| The Theory of Everything |
13.19% |
| American Sniper |
4.14% |
| Guardians of the Galaxy |
2.02% |
| Wild |
2.02% |
| Unbroken |
1.80% |
| Into the Woods |
0.26% |
What is notable is the uncertainty. Only Richard Linklater looks to be a shoe-in (and is certainly the favorite to win). Surprising is the low odds given to Birdman's Alejandro González Iñárritu. Both he and his film are widely considered to be the only challenger to Boyhood. Ava DuVernay, who would be the first African-American woman to be nominated for the prize, is also getting surprisingly low odds here. On the other hand, David Fincher seems to be overvalued for Gone Girl, though he has become a perennial Oscar favorite.
Perhaps the explanation is that in a year of decent (but not great) dramas, it is hard to single out a few for recognition. I'd bet against the advice of the model on Iñárritu, who seems to me to be as sure of thing as Linklater. But after that I'd say it's up in the air. Even a nomination for Angelina Jolie (whose given a 1.8% chance here) wouldn't shock me.
Alternatively, we could look at the Director's Guild Awards. These awards are the most predictive of both Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars, and their list of nominees is often replicated by the Academy.
Odds of a Directors Guild Nomination for Best Director
| Film |
Odds |
| Boyhood |
99.98% |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
89.69% |
| Birdman |
86.81% |
| Gone Girl |
85.69% |
| Selma |
74.34% |
| The Imitation Game |
73.63% |
| Foxcatcher |
32.38% |
| The Theory of Everything |
21.91% |
| Nightcrawler |
7.58% |
| Whiplash |
7.58% |
| American Sniper |
2.62% |
| Unbroken |
2.11% |
| Guardians of the Galaxy |
1.23% |
| Wild |
1.23% |
| Into the Woods |
0.24% |
This list seems less unsure of itself, with some pretty clear favorites. Only six directors seem to be in the mix, and my guess is that The Imitation Game's Morten Tyldum will take a spot at the BAFTAs, but will otherwise come up short at the DGAs and Oscars.
