Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

This morning the Directors Guild of America announced their five nominees for director of a feature film. Only twice in their mutual history did the Directors Guild fail to nominate the eventual winner of Best Picture (An American in Paris in 1951 and Driving Mrs. Daisy in 1989). Never have they failed to nominate the eventual winner of Best Director. So we can be almost certain that one or two of these films will be taking home those two awards.

Directors Guild Nominations

Wes Anderson  -  The Grand Budapest Hotel
Clint Eastwood  -  American Sniper
Alejandro G. Iñárritu  -  Birdman
Richard Linklater  -  Boyhood
Morten Tyldum  -  The Imitation Game

Of course I have entered this new information into the model to predict Oscar nominations and have gotten this as the result:

Odds of a Nomination for Best Picture

Film	Odds
Boyhood	99.99%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	99.78%
The Imitation Game	99.75%
Birdman	99.37%
The Theory of Everything	83.36%
American Sniper	73.17%
Gone Girl	70.16%
Nightcrawler	43.19%
Whiplash	43.19%
Foxcatcher	38.02%
Selma	20.87%
Unbroken	2.17%
A Most Violent Year	0.80%
Guardians of the Galaxy	0.63%
Wild (2014)	0.63%
Into the Woods	0.57%
St. Vincent	0.57%
Pride (2014)	0.57%

Odds of Winning Best Picture

Film	Odds
Boyhood	67.43%
Birdman	13.59%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	9.24%
The Imitation Game	9.24%
American Sniper	0.50%

Odds of a Nomination for Best Director

Film	Odds
Boyhood	99.96%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	92.74%
The Imitation Game	77.90%
Birdman	54.37%
Gone Girl	33.63%
American Sniper	22.88%
Nightcrawler	13.96%
Whiplash	13.96%
Selma	11.07%
Foxcatcher	9.46%
The Theory of Everything	4.27%
Guardians of the Galaxy	1.41%
Wild (2014)	1.41%
Unbroken	1.29%
Into the Woods	0.24%
St. Vincent	0.24%
Pride (2014)	0.24%

Odds of Winning Best Director

Film	Odds
Boyhood	68.82%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	12.05%
The Imitation Game	12.05%
Birdman	5.18%
American Sniper	1.91%

Any film not included in a particular list is estimated to have odds of approximately 0%.