Predicting Director Nominations

In 2012, Argo ran away with the Best Picture race, but it's director Ben Affleck didn't even receive a nomination. It was perhaps the biggest oversight in Oscar history due to both the prestige of the award and the near certainty that Affleck would have won if he were nominated. With that in mind, I wanted to try predicting the nominees for Best Director in advance of the 15th.

There are 15 directors who could be considered "in the running" for Best Director. That short list looks like this:

Best Director "Shortlist"

Film	Director
American Sniper	Clint Eastwood
Birdman	Alejandro González Iñárritu
Boyhood	Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher	Bennett Miller
Gone Girl	David Fincher
Guardians of the Galaxy	James Gunn
Into the Woods	Rob Marshall
Nightcrawler	Dan Gilroy
Selma	Ava DuVernay
The Grand Budapest Hotel	Wes Anderson
The Imitation Game	Morten Tyldum
The Theory of Everything	James Marsh
Unbroken	Angelina Jolie
Whiplash	Damien Chazelle
Wild	Jean-Marc Vallée

Out of these 15, only 6 have been nominated elsewhere: Iñárritu, Linklater, Fincher, DuVernay, Anderson, and Jolie. But as I hinted at the top, the Academy often overlooks the consensus. Feeding what nominations there have been so far into a model to predict the Academy's nods gives the following:

Odds of an Academy Award Nomination for Best Director

Film	Odds
Boyhood	99.90%
Gone Girl	76.30%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	63.95%
The Imitation Game	58.92%
Selma	48.23%
Birdman	47.75%
Foxcatcher	31.12%
Nightcrawler	17.19%
Whiplash	17.19%
The Theory of Everything	13.19%
American Sniper	4.14%
Guardians of the Galaxy	2.02%
Wild	2.02%
Unbroken	1.80%
Into the Woods	0.26%

What is notable is the uncertainty. Only Richard Linklater looks to be a shoe-in (and is certainly the favorite to win). Surprising is the low odds given to Birdman's Alejandro González Iñárritu. Both he and his film are widely considered to be the only challenger to Boyhood. Ava DuVernay, who would be the first African-American woman to be nominated for the prize, is also getting surprisingly low odds here. On the other hand, David Fincher seems to be overvalued for Gone Girl, though he has become a perennial Oscar favorite. 

Perhaps the explanation is that in a year of decent (but not great) dramas, it is hard to single out a few for recognition. I'd bet against the advice of the model on Iñárritu, who seems to me to be as sure of thing as Linklater. But after that I'd say it's up in the air. Even a nomination for Angelina Jolie (whose given a 1.8% chance here) wouldn't shock me. 

Alternatively, we could look at the Director's Guild Awards. These awards are the most predictive of both Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars, and their list of nominees is often replicated by the Academy. 

Odds of a Directors Guild Nomination for Best Director

Film	Odds
Boyhood	99.98%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	89.69%
Birdman	86.81%
Gone Girl	85.69%
Selma	74.34%
The Imitation Game	73.63%
Foxcatcher	32.38%
The Theory of Everything	21.91%
Nightcrawler	7.58%
Whiplash	7.58%
American Sniper	2.62%
Unbroken	2.11%
Guardians of the Galaxy	1.23%
Wild	1.23%
Into the Woods	0.24%

This list seems less unsure of itself, with some pretty clear favorites. Only six directors seem to be in the mix, and my guess is that The Imitation Game's Morten Tyldum will take a spot at the BAFTAs, but will otherwise come up short at the DGAs and Oscars.