Let the 2014 Oscar Race Begin!

Today the Producers Guild of America announced their nominations for the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. It is their version of the Academy Awards' Best Picture, and it is widely seen as stepping stone to a nomination for that award. These nominations come after others for the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Critics Choice Awards, and several other critics groups.

I have taken all of these nominations and fed them into a database of over 7000 films, containing virtually every film eligible for an Academy Award nomination since 1990, so that I can crunch the numbers and see if they can tell us which films will be nominated for Best Picture, and which one of those is the most likely to win.

Odds of Receiving a Best Picture Nomination:

Film	Odds
Boyhood	99.99%
Birdman	99.69%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	98.72%
The Imitation Game	98.51%
The Theory of Everything	98.51%
Selma	94.29%
Gone Girl	87.91%
Foxcatcher	57.48%
Nightcrawler	26.49%
Whiplash	26.49%
Unbroken	12.69%
American Sniper	4.80%
A Most Violent Year	3.11%
Into the Woods	2.73%
St. Vincent	2.73%
Pride (2014)	2.73%
Guardians of the Galaxy	0.43%

Odds of Winning Best Picture:

Film	Odds
Boyhood	94.31%
Birdman	3.44%
The Grand Budapest Hotel	1.16%
The Imitation Game	0.44%
The Theory of Everything	0.44%
Selma	0.15%
Gone Girl	0.04%
Unbroken	0.00%
Nightcrawler	0.00%
Whiplash	0.00%
Foxcatcher	0.00%

Since the Academy changed the way they nominate films for Best Picture in 2011, every year has seen nine nominees, though it is possible to have just 5 or as many as 10. Six films appear to be foregone conclusions. But the remaining spots are fairly competitive, with 7 or 8 films having a decent shot at them. 

Nevertheless, this year is shaping up to look a lot like 2011. That too was a mediocre year for movies, and a forgettable film like The Artist was able to walk away with the top prize without a contest. Don't get me wrong, I really enjoyed the The Artist, and I really enjoyed Boyhood. I'm just not sure that a gimmick like being a silent picture or being filmed over 12 years is enough to justify the most prestigious award in cinema. 

But allow me to issue a word of caution. At this stage in 1998, Saving Private Ryan had a 99.99% chance of winning Best Picture. The Social Network had a 98.66% chance. Apollo 13 had an 86.84% chance. Those failures of prediction alone should give you pause about the odds given here. I would still bet on Boyhood though.